Fifty days until the official start of hurricane season
MONROE, La. (KNOE) - Today marks fifty days until the official start of hurricane season on June 1st.
Colorado State University released its tropical forecast last week. They are calling for another above-average year with 19 named tropical storms and nine hurricanes, four of which are expected to be category 3 or higher. This is the third year in a row that forecasters have called for an “above average” season.
Last year was the third most active Atlantic hurricane season to date. It was also the second season in a row in which we ran out of hurricane names. The 2021 hurricane season produced 21 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes, four of which reached category 3 strength or higher. This includes Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the mid-Atlantic and northeast US.
CSU cites warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures and overall light upper-level winds in the Tropical Atlantic as the main reason for a more active than normal season. This is because of the likely absence of an El Niño pattern. During an El Niño pattern, we see strong wind shear aloft that will limit tropical activity. On the flip side of that, a La Niña pattern is typically favorable for tropical formation and hurricane growth.
One of the reasons for the above-average Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from CSU is due to the likely lack of #ElNino this summer/fall. El Nino generally increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes. pic.twitter.com/ef5kiv56Ci— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 7, 2022
Hurricane season begins in June and lasts through November. August to October tends to be the peak of the Atlantic season.
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