Weather It's True-Forecasting - KNOE 8 News; KNOE-TV; KNOE.com |

Weather It's True-Forecasting

Posted: Updated:

MONROE, La. (KNOE 8 News) - For the first timers on "Weather It's True", I - Clay Ostarly - take questions from you, the viewer, and answer them to the best of my ability. I receive plenty of phone calls and emails saying "we were wrong" about our forecast and for this reason, I have turned the tables and instead of you asking me, I'm going to ask you,"what do you think goes into a meteorologist's research to draw up a forecast?"

I got a lot of interesting responses such as:

"I think you just pull stuff out of a hat like a wizard, cast a spell, and see how cold it's going to be."

"eggs, bacon, and hot dogs."

"I think you all get together and have a big meeting and when the guys up north say 'it's cold' in about 3-4 days y'all say it's going to be cold down here too."

Now I wish it was as easy as flipping a coin or pulling things out of a hat but it's not. Our research starts hours in advance of the upcoming show. We look at raw model data and we translate it for you to understand, such as maps that show barometric pressure, upper level winds, and temperatures from the surface all the way up into the upper atmosphere or satellite imagery that shows clouds and water vapor loops that shows the moisture in the air.

Believe or not the best tool is a meteorologist's eyes and ears and the experience to make judgement calls against model data. Even you, the viewer, can contribute greatly to a forecast by sending in storm reports of what you see.

Through all of these tools and research, forecasting accuracy is about 85% to date and the key point to understand is that meteorology is not an exact science. It's constantly changing and for that reason, a forecast may differ from one day to the next but hardly ever by a couple degrees.

  • Most Popular StoriesMost Popular StoriesMore>>

  • Black bear plays hide-and-seek in Winnsboro

    Black bear plays hide-and-seek in Winnsboro

    Sunday, August 31 2014 3:16 PM EDT2014-08-31 19:16:24 GMT
    WINNSBORO, La. (KNOE 8 News) - One KNOE viewer sent in some cute video of what looks to be a Louisiana Black Bear hanging out in a rice field.
    WINNSBORO, La. (KNOE 8 News) - One KNOE viewer sent in some cute video of what looks to be a Louisiana Black Bear hanging out in a rice field.
  • US judge blocks enforcement of new La abortion law

    US judge blocks enforcement of new La abortion law

    Monday, September 1 2014 12:02 AM EDT2014-09-01 04:02:42 GMT
    BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — A federal judge has temporarily blocked enforcement of Louisiana's restrictive new abortion law.
    BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — A federal judge has temporarily blocked enforcement of Louisiana's restrictive new abortion law.
  • San Antonio man shoots two children during domestic dispute

    San Antonio man shoots two children during domestic dispute

    Sunday, August 31 2014 2:47 PM EDT2014-08-31 18:47:50 GMT
    SAN ANTONIO, Tx. (KENS) - A shooting in southeast San Antonio left two children riddled with gunshot wounds Saturday.
    SAN ANTONIO, Tx. (KENS) - A shooting in southeast San Antonio left two children riddled with gunshot wounds Saturday.
  • Second arrest made in April 2013 murder

    Second arrest made in April 2013 murder

    Saturday, August 30 2014 3:00 PM EDT2014-08-30 19:00:56 GMT
    MONROE, La. (KNOE 8 News) - A second arrest has been made in the April 2013 murder of Steve Brown.
    MONROE, La. (KNOE 8 News) - A second arrest has been made in the April 2013 murder of Steve Brown.
  • Louisiana police arrest man in Montana killing

    Louisiana police arrest man in Montana killing

    Sunday, August 31 2014 3:06 PM EDT2014-08-31 19:06:59 GMT
    SHREVEPORT, La. (AP) - Shreveport police say a two-day manhunt has brought the arrest of a 27-year-old man accused in Montana of killing a homeless man.
    SHREVEPORT, La. (AP) - Shreveport police say a two-day manhunt has brought the arrest of a 27-year-old man accused in Montana of killing a homeless man.
  • Two women arrested on conspiracy, fraud and forgery

    Two women arrested on conspiracy, fraud and forgery

    Saturday, August 30 2014 7:21 PM EDT2014-08-30 23:21:06 GMT
    WEST MONROE, La. (KNOE 8 News) - Two Monroe women have been arrested for multiple counts of conspiracy, fraud, and forgery. West Monroe Police say former Cash Time employee Kisha Scott allegedly set up several fake accounts in order to get hundreds of dollars from each one.' Police report Mary Mustin helped Scott steal the money.  
    WEST MONROE, La. (KNOE 8 News) - Two Monroe women have been arrested for multiple counts of conspiracy, fraud, and forgery. West Monroe Police say former Cash Time employee Kisha Scott allegedly set up several fake accounts in order to get hundreds of dollars from each one.' Police report Mary Mustin helped Scott steal the money.  
  • 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith suspended by NFL

    49ers linebacker Aldon Smith suspended by NFL

    Friday, August 29 2014 9:30 PM EDT2014-08-30 01:30:05 GMT
    San Francisco 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith has been suspended for nine games by the NFL after a series of off-field legal issues.
    The San Francisco 49ers have been preparing for months to play on without Aldon Smith over an extended period.
  • BR Police: officer shot man who tried to take gun

    BR Police: officer shot man who tried to take gun

    Sunday, August 31 2014 2:41 PM EDT2014-08-31 18:41:03 GMT
    BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) - Baton Rouge police Cpl. Don Coppola Jr. says an officer shot and critically wounded a man who allegedly tried to grab the officer's gun while threatening his life.
    BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) - Baton Rouge police Cpl. Don Coppola Jr. says an officer shot and critically wounded a man who allegedly tried to grab the officer's gun while threatening his life.
Powered by WorldNow
All content © Copyright 2000 - 2014 WorldNow and KNOE. All Rights Reserved.
For more information on this site, please read our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.